|
Landslides represent a major threat to human life, property, infrastructure and natural environment in most mountainous regions of the world. Statistics from The Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) show that, on average, landslides are responsible for at least 17% of all fatalities from natural hazards worldwide. The socio-economic impact of landslides is underestimated because landslides are usually not separated from other natural hazard triggers, such as extreme precipitation, earthquakes or floods. In the last century, Europe has experienced the second highest number of fatalities and the highest economic losses caused by landslides compared to other continents: at least 16,000 people have lost their lives because of landslides and the material losses amounted to over 1700 mill. in Europe during the 20th century. Heavy rainfall is the main trigger for mudflows, the deadliest and most destructive of all landslides.
Managing the risk associated with landslides is a demanding and challenging task. In areas with high population density, protection works often cannot be built because of economic or environmental constraints, and is it not always possible to evacuate people because of societal reasons. The landslide risk in Europe is growing as a consequence of demographic and climatic changes (potential global warming, changes of hydrological cycles, more extreme weather, concentrated rainfall within shorter periods of time, meteorological events followed by sea storms causing coastal erosion and melting of snow and of frozen soils in the Alpine regions). Other climate and human-related factors that are important for the changing pattern of landslide risk in Europe are listed below:
• Changing land-use (meadows, pastures, abandoned lands, forests) which may have a strong influence on soil moisture availability.
• Changes in vegetation species or vegetation cover (human or climate-induced).
• Expansion of new developments and facilities (roads, train lines, buildings) which may change slope geometry or hydrology.
• Improvement of living standards, increased concentration of people, land use, infrastructure and goods in environmentally privileged but hazardous regions increases the level of risk, may escalate in the future, and need to be quantified.
To deal with the changing pattern of landslide risk, several national and pan-European research projects have been or are being initiated. These projects aim at: (1) providing policy-makers, public administrators, researchers, scientists, educators and other stakeholders with improved methods for the assessment and quantification of landslide; (2) evaluating the changes in risk pattern caused by climate change, human activity and policy changes; and (3) providing guidelines for choosing the most appropriate risk management strategies.
|
