International Geologiical Congress - Oslo 2008

Home

Search Abstracts

Author Index

Symposia Programmes

Sponsors

Help

 

 

GEP-04 Hydrocarbon resource assessment methodology in a complex architectural context

 

New methods for prediction of oil ultimate resources

 

Haibin Bi, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Petrochina (China)
Wenzhi Zhao, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Petrochina (China)
Jianzhong Li, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Petrochina (China)
Yongwu Chen, Petroleum Reserves Office, Ministry of Land and Resources, China (China)
Weili Kang, Petroleum Reserves Office, Ministry of Land and Resources, China (China)
Zheng Han, Petroleum Reserves Office, Ministry of Land and Resources, China (China)
Xiaochun Hu, Petroleum Reserves Office, Ministry of Land and Resources, China (China)
 

 

This paper reviews some of the prediction methods for ultimate resources currently used throughout the world. The general rulers of discovery and the change of reserves-production ratio of large-scale oil and gas fields in China are also analyzed. The relationships among original reserves, cumulative production and ultimate resources, as well as the influence of the change of reserves-production ratio on them, are discussed. Two effective prediction methods of ultimate resources have been developed by using original reserves and cumulative production, respectively named the history fitting method during the entire process and reserves-production ratio curve fitting method during declining period. There is no precondition for the history fitting method during the entire process, which can be used in an extensive area. When the reserves-production ratio has not stepped into declining stage, because of the uncertainty of exploration and the small amount of data, it is necessary to be cautious using prediction result, alone obtained by history fitting method during the entire process.
Reserves-production ratio curve fitting method during declining period can only be used in the oil area or oilfield, in which the reserves-production ratio has stepped into declining stage. This method is more actual.
These two prediction methods can be used not only for oil areas, but also for basins, structural belts, oil fields, and gas areas, gas fields.
The prediction methods are effective on the condition of existing technology of exploration and development, and in the petroliferous basin, in which commercial hydrocarbon flow has been obtained and produced. With the science and technology improving, it is no doubt that ultimate resources will increase greatly. The ultimate resources and the ultimate Sub-economic resources in China are predicted respectively to be at 107.8108 t and at 27∼36108 t by using these two methods. The prediction results indicate that good results can be achieved by reasonably using these two methods.

 

CD-ROM Produced by X-CD Technologies