|
Ines Alberico, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (Italy)
Giovanna Maglione, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (Italy)
Laura Bruno, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (Italy)
Sandro Dal Piaz, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (Italy)
Lucio Lirer, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (Italy)
Paola Petrosino, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II (Italy)
|
|
The vulnerability of populated areas to natural disasters is partly a consequence of decades of spatial planning policies that failed to take proper account of hazards and risks in spatial planning and development decisions. Actually, the risk management is mainly based on hazard related information while no attention is focused on the exposed value, whose knowledge is fundamental not only in the hazard mitigation but also in preparedness, response and recovery phases.
At this aim, volcanologists and territory planners investigated the relationship between the volcanic hazard, due to the activity occurred at Campi Flgrei caldera in the last 15 ka, and the present condition of territorial system.
Three kinds of eruptions with high, medium and low Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI=3, 4, 5) were considered to define the volcanic event scenarios. For each one of these three eruptions, the hazard area was defined taking into account many hypothetical eruptive vents with different probability of occurrence. In these areas a detail investigation of spatial distribution of the census data (ISTAT, 2001) and their proximity to the main nodes of road-railway network were used to define the emergency planning zones and the areas were people could be collected and immediately evacuated.
In the emergency planning zones, the residential population has shown an exponential increase of people involved in the new possible eruption moving from the Licola costal zone to Napoli city. In detail, for eruption with VEI=5 the residential population varies from 55.000 to 800.000 people, for eruption with VEI = 4 from 38.000 to 580.000 people, and for eruption with VEI =3 from 6.000 to 172.000 people.
|
